Craig Childs is a nature writer and globetrotting adventure
hog. He’s been thinking a lot about
apocalypse lately. It’s hard not
to. The jungle drums are pounding out a
growing stream of warnings — attention! — big trouble ahead.
The Christian currents in our culture encourage us to
perceive time as being something like a drag strip. At one end is the starting line (creation),
and at the other end is the finish line (judgment day). We’re speeding closer and closer to the end,
which some perceive to be the final Game Over for everything everywhere. Childs disagrees. “We are not on a one-way trip to a brown and
sandblasted planet.”
He was lucky to survive into adulthood still possessing an unfettered
imagination, and he can zoom right over packs of snarling dogmas that
disembowel most folks who attempt to think outside the box. In his book Apocalyptic Planet, he gives readers a
helpful primer on eco-catastrophe. The
bottom line is that Earth is constantly changing, and it’s not uncommon for change
events to be sudden and catastrophic.
He purports that the big storm on the horizon today is not “The
Apocalypse.” It’s just one more
turbulent era in a four billion year story.
Out of the pile of planetary disasters, he selects nine examples, travels
to locations that illustrate each one, and then spins stories. Each tale cuts back and forth between his
adventures at the site, and background information from assorted sources. It’s an apocalypse buffet.
Deserts are a quarter of all land, and many are growing
now. History tells us that they can
expand and contract rapidly, taking out societies in the process. Four out of ten people live in regions prone
to drying up. New Mexico once
experienced a drought that lasted 1,000 years.
Beneath the driest regions of the Sahara, pollen samples indicate that
the land was once tropical savannah and woodlands. A few years ago, Atlanta, Georgia (not an arid
region) came close to draining its water supply during a long drought.
Glaciers are melting at rate that alarms people who
think. Childs visited the Northern
Patagonia Ice Field, where hunks the size of buildings were crashing down off
the edge of the dying glacier. Enormous
volumes of melt water are raising the global sea level. He also visited the Bering Sea, where the old
land bridge is now 340 feet (103 m) underwater.
Beringia was once a broad treeless steppe, home to an amazing community
of megafauna. If climate change
eliminates all ice, the seas could rise another 120 feet (36 m) or so, and
major rivers will run dry from lack of melt water. About 40 percent of humankind resides near
coasts. Nobody knows how fast the seas
will rise, or how much.
The planet has been smacked countless times by asteroids. Many believe that the dinosaur era was
terminated by the Chicxubal impact on the Yucatan Peninsula. There are many, many objects zooming around
in space that could hit us, but Childs recommends that our time would be better
spent worrying about catastrophic volcanic eruptions. There are daily eruptions from 200 active
volcanoes. Extreme eruptions have loaded
the atmosphere with dust, blocking out sunlight, leading to winters that lasted
for years. Humankind once had a close
call with extinction when Mount Toba erupted 73,000 years ago.
Climate change is likely to affect the movement of the
planet’s tectonic plates. As glaciers
melt and dam reservoirs evaporate, there will be less weight on the land below,
allowing it to rise. Tectonic shifts can
lead to earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and altered ocean currents
and weather patterns.
All civilizations are temporary outbursts of overbreeding and
harmful lifestyles. On a visit to Mayan
ruins in Guatemala, Childs discussed their collapse, the result of a
combination of factors. “The issue,
ultimately, was carrying capacity.” Over
the years, I’ve often seen people sharing their opinions of the Earth’s
carrying capacity for humans. Estimates
usually range between 100 million and 15 billion, as if there is one correct
answer.
Actually, the long-term carrying capacity is constantly
changing, and these days it’s getting smaller and smaller. Ocean acidification, chronic overfishing, and
other harms have sharply reduced the vitality of marine ecosystems. Chronic forest mining, soil mining, and
industrialization have sharply reduced the vitality of terrestrial
ecosystems.
The fossil energy bubble enabled a huge temporary spike in carrying
capacity, but as we move beyond peak, we’ll discover that the long-term
carrying capacity is far less than it was 10,000 years ago, when the ecosystem
enjoyed excellent health. Climate change
is likely to reduce it further still, as large numbers of plant and animal
species go extinct.
There have been five mass extinction events in ages past, and
we are now in the sixth. Childs takes us
on an amusing visit to the site of a catastrophic mass extinction, the state of
Iowa, where 90 percent of the ecosystem has been reduced to agriculture. He and a buddy spent two days hiking through
fields, dwarfed by tall stalks of corn (maize), during a week of blast furnace heat.
They were looking for signs of life besides corn, and they
found almost none. The ecosystem was
once home to 300 species of plants, 60 mammals, 300 birds, and over 1,000 insects. “This had historically been tallgrass
prairie, one of the largest and most diverse biomasses in North America where a
person on horseback could not be seen for the height of the grass.” The sixth mass extinction is unlike the previous
five, in that it is the result of human activities, an embarrassing
accomplishment.
Yeast devours sugar and converts it into alcohol and carbon
dioxide. When yeast are added to a vat
of freshly pressed grape juice, they plunge into a sweet paradise, and promptly
produce a bubbly population explosion.
The alcohol in the vat will keep increasing until it reaches toxic
levels, at which point the yeast experience a mass extinction event, the tragic
consequence of living in an artificial environment constructed by thirsty
alcoholics.
Childs believes that civilization and human domination of the
planet waited until recently because we thrive in warm weather. Humans evolved in a tropical climate. Eventually, we migrated into non-tropical
climates, and developed the skills and technology necessary for surviving in
chilly weather, but the ice ages were a time of struggle, not a sweet paradise. Then, a freak thing happened. The weather got warm, and stayed warm, for
10,000 years. Suddenly, we were like yeast
in grape juice. Yippee!
The 800-pound gorilla in this book is climate change, and
concern about the decades that lie before us.
Childs cites the views of a number of scientists, and they are all over
the place. A loose cannon at the EPA
says that global warming is a hoax, but the others agree that the climate is
warming, and humans are the primary culprits.
Some think that we’ve passed the tipping point, and all ice will soon be
gone. Others think that if emissions are
reduced, disaster might be avoided. One
is sure that technology will fix everything — geoengineering will allow us to
control the planet’s climate like a thermostat.
Another says that humankind will be gone in 100 years.
Climate history tells us that global temperatures commonly
swing up and down, sometimes as much as 10° to 12°C. Huge temperature swings lead to extinctions,
but life on Earth has persisted. The
current jump in temperature is unlike the previous ones in that it is the outcome
of human activities. It is the result of
a unique combination of factors, with no historical precedent. Humans
are unique in being able to adapt to a wide variety of ecosystems, but
ecosystems are far less adaptable to sudden climate shifts. Agriculture is on thin ice, as are seven
billion people.
In a hut on the Greenland ice sheet, Childs had a long chat
with José Rial, a chaos researcher and climate change scholar. Rial understands that nature is highly
unstable, and quite capable of rapid and unpredictable changes. “What we study doesn’t always help us predict
very much, but it helps us to understand what is possible.” Childs added, “He knows that the actual
future is the one we never expect.”
Childs, Craig, Apocalyptic
Planet — Field Guide to the Everending Earth, Pantheon Books, New
York, 2012.
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