Stephen Emmott is a chief techno-wizard at Microsoft Research
in Cambridge, England. His brilliant
young scientists are doing research in complex natural systems. Their objective is to invent miracles. They want to program ordinary cells to
perform photosynthesis, so we can produce food from sunlight, without plows and
seeds. Agriculture can’t feed ten
billion. The goal is to delay the onrushing
planetary emergency, and push aside annoying obstacles to perpetual growth.
Much of the public seems to be paying little attention to the
emergency, if they are aware of it at all.
Biking around the university town where I live, I don’t sense a crisis
of overpopulation. I don’t sense that
global carbon emissions have increased 400 percent in my lifetime. The squirrels, opossums, ducks, and blue jays
have not gone extinct. Life seems
normal. Everything is OK. Right?
A wealth of information can be found online, but many internet
factoids are generated by slippery gangsters who accumulate riches by
accelerating the planetary emergency. You
see their work hundreds of times every day.
Among their favorite tools are magical rubber stamps that imprint [SUSTAINABLE]
with subliminal green ink — [SUSTAINABLE] soil mining, [SUSTAINABLE] forest
mining, [SUSTAINABLE] fish mining, [SUSTAINABLE] growth, [SUSTAINABLE]
development, and on and on.
Emmott’s clan of brilliant scientists is an oddity. They do not have the rubber stamp. They are not wearing choke chains that will
be jerked if they express ideas that offend the mighty. They will not lose their jobs if they
conclude that we are in the midst of a planetary emergency. When thinkers are free to learn without
blinders and hobbles, they come to perceive reality as an intense whirlwind of
out-of-control juju. This can be a
head-snapping experience.
Emmott realized that it would be good to share his disturbing
discoveries with the world, to help others see.
Being present in reality, with eyes wide open, breaks the spell. It provides vision, coherence, and
empowerment unavailable to those who stumble in a fog of illusions. So, in a burst of creative energy, he sat
down and wrote Ten
Billion, a most unusual book.
It’s 216 pages long, but it can be read in less than an
hour. There is more white space than
text. Some pages are home to five words.
In a normal book, the text might fill 25
pages. Ten Billion resembles a PowerPoint presentation
— an orderly stream of brief statements, decorated with attention-grabbing photos
and charts. He smelted down a mountain
of raw data, reducing it to vital conclusions, the pure essence of his vision,
and nothing else.
According to one review, readers have a love/hate
relationship with the book. Techies and
scientists tend to be annoyed by bold statements unsupported by exhaustive
explanations and scholarly citations. Commoners
are more likely to appreciate the simplicity.
It’s encouraging that the book is keeping the cash registers busy at
Amazon — it’s attracting hungry minds. For
oddballs like myself, who have read several hundred books on the planetary
emergency, Ten
Billion is just basic information that every well-educated high
school student should know by now.
For example, “We currently have no known means of being able
to feed ten billion of us at our current rate of consumption and with our
current agricultural system.” Indeed,
experts expect food productivity to decline in the coming decades, “possibly
very sharply.” Why? Reserves of phosphate, a mineral nutrient
essential for agriculture, are no longer plentiful. Desertification and urban sprawl are reducing
cropland area. Soils are being depleted,
or eroding away. Weeds, diseases, and
insects continue to develop resistance to our latest chemicals. Farmers are draining rivers and emptying
underground aquifers.
To feed ten billion people, many of whom want more meat, food
production must double. Keeping a
growing mob on life support will require far more water, energy, and
cropland. Kiss the tropical forests
goodbye. Kiss countless wild species
goodbye. Adding more people will also increase
carbon emissions and accelerate climate change.
Don’t worry about Peak Energy. Instead, worry that we’ll continue extracting
and burning what we’ve already discovered.
Worry that we’ll discover even more, and burn that, too. Worry about climate change. A 2°C rise in the global climate would be
catastrophic. New research suggests that
a rise of 4 degrees is likely, and 6 degrees is possible. As the Arctic heats up, large amounts of
methane are being released in thousands of plumes. “This could be very big trouble on a very big
scale.”
Even if miracles provided us with abundant clean energy, eliminated
climate change, and inspired us to consume far, far less, we’re still doomed if
population growth continues. It is
helpful to educate more women, and provide family planning services, but it is
still very common for women have more than two children, often many more. “The worst thing we can continue to do —
globally — is have children at the current rate.”
Anyway, after a quick tour of our primary challenges, Emmott
finally reveals two options for addressing them, (1) technological innovation,
and (2) radical behavior change. He
warns that expecting techno-miracles requires “a staggering leap into
fantasy.” Science is unlikely to rescue
us. But radical behavior change requires
a radical reduction in consumption, radically different governments, and a
radically different economy. The bottom
line is on the last page. “We urgently
need to do — and I mean actually
do — something radical to avert global catastrophe. But I don’t think we will. I think we’re fucked.”
For years, publishers have required eco-books to offer some
light at the end of the tunnel. “We only
have 30 years to prevent disaster.”
Then, it was 20 years. Then, it
was 10 years. Write letters to your legislators! Change your light bulbs! Let’s mobilize the nation, as we did during
World War II, to sharply reduce consumption!
Those books failed to make enough people care. The house was not on fire, yet.
If you spent months studying 500 channels of TV, you would
not be blown off your couch by a fire hose of messages describing the planetary
emergency. “We’re not getting the
information we need. The scale and
nature of the problem is simply not being communicated to us.” A healthy dose of truth might encourage us to
reflect upon how we live, and what we value, but that would slow economic
growth.
A primary objective of our education system is to prepare the
next generation for careers in [SUSTAINABLE] development, so they can live like
there’s no tomorrow. To expose innocent
youth to full strength reality would plunge them into deep despair, reducing
them to walking dead zombies, we claim. Actually,
despair is a normal, healthy, and rational response to today’s reality. It’s not a terminal illness, it’s an opening
of the heart that revives us as we recover from soul loss. How can we interact intelligently with reality
if we don’t comprehend reality?
There is no silver bullet cure for the planetary
emergency. There is no undo button. But living mindfully, present in reality, is
healing and empowering. Our species did
not evolve to be recreational shoppers.
We weren’t meant to spend our lives mindlessly hoarding frivolous status
trinkets. There’s no future in that. It’s not even fun. There are other paths.
Emmott, Stephen, Ten
Billion, Vintage Books, New York, 2013.
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