Showing posts with label cropland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cropland. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Wild Free and Happy Sample 42


[Note: This is the forty-second sample from the rough draft of my far from finished new book, Wild, Free, & Happy.  The Search field on the right side will find words in the full contents of all rants and reviews.  These samples are not freestanding pieces.  They will be easier to understand if you start with sample 01, and follow the sequence listed HERE — if you have some free time.  If you prefer audiobooks, Michael Dowd is in the process of reading and recording my book HERE.]

SACRED ENERGY

Sunbeams

Alfred Crosby wrote a fascinating history of energy use.  There are two primary sources of energy, nuclear fusion from the core of the sun, and heat that rises up from the molten magma within the Earth.  Almost all of the energy used by the family of life traces back to the solar source.  Every day, the sun reliably provides clean energy for our planet, and it never sends us a bill.  Solar energy will very likely continue to be delivered for millions of years.  It is genuinely sustainable.

Energy arriving via incoming sunbeams is captured by the living solar panels built into a wide variety of green plants.  The solar panels contain chlorophyll, which uses sunbeam power to assemble simple carbohydrates by combining molecules of carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O).  This magic act is called photosynthesis, and it enables the existence of the entire family of life.  The carbs it produces include sugars, lignin, and cellulose.  They are used for the plant’s basic survival, growth, and reproduction.  Some plants store carbs for later use.  The byproduct emitted by photosynthesis is a gas called oxygen.

By a remarkable coincidence, living organisms called animals require both carbohydrates and oxygen in order to survive.  Animals burn (oxidize) carbs and release a byproduct called carbon dioxide, the gas that plants need to perform photosynthesis.  Animals consume food from plant and/or animal sources and use it for growth, reproduction, daily activities, and so on.  The portion of their food intake that’s not utilized is emitted in wastes called pee and poop, which are highly nutritious substances for plants.

Finally, all living plants and animals. sooner or later, become dead plants and animals, and dead stuff is a highly nutritious source of food for the recycling crew of wee beings.  They convert dead stuff into humus.  This organic matter sequesters essential nutrients and improves the fertility of topsoil, much to the delight of the entire family of life.  Under ideal conditions, the fertility and depth of topsoil can improve continuously for thousands of years.   

Ladies and gentlemen, please stand up and give an enthusiastic round of applause for the amazing magic of life — a brilliant, intricate, functional process that has been perfectly sustainable for several billion years, successfully rolling with the many powerful punches of change!  Hooray!  All lives matter!  All deaths matter!  The dance goes round and round.  Woo-hoo!  Big Mama Nature rocks!

Here’s something I didn’t know before.  Earth is an unusual planet, because its land surfaces include accumulations of carbon-rich organic matter, stuff left behind by the family of life.  This matter enables the possibility of fire.  Three things are needed for fire: oxygen, heat, and fuel.  A living forest can burn, and so can collections of dead dry stuff.  Crosby suspected that Earth might be the only planet where fire is possible.

Carboniferous Period

The family of life is sunbeam powered.  Soil organisms are children of the sun.  Plants and trees are children of the sun.  Everything that swims, flies, crawls, or walks is a sunbeam critter, including you and me.  Fossil energy is hydrocarbon compounds originally created by ancient sunbeams.

Coal is fossilized sunshine from tropical swamp forests that lived during the Carboniferous Period, which was roughly 360 to 300 million years ago, long before dinosaurs.  This fossil biomass accumulated over the course of 60 million years, largely in the vast swampy rainforests of Europe, Asia, and North America.  The rainforests absorbed sunshine and carbon, and used it to create carbon-rich biomass, via photosynthesis.

Today, tree trunks are roughly 1 part bark to 4 parts of wood.  During the Carboniferous, the trees trunks were more like 8 parts bark to 1 part of wood (up to 20 to 1).  Back then, there were no microorganisms capable of decomposing the lignin in the bark of dead trees, so nothing rotted for 60 million years.  The biomass in the rainforest swamps eventually became carbon-rich peat.  Over time, pressure and heat transformed the peat deposits into coal.  In some locations, coal beds are up to 39 feet thick (12 m). 

Because so much carbon was buried, there was far less of it in the atmosphere.  Consequently, the oxygen content in the air soared to 35 percent (now it’s 21 percent).  So, for the animals living in that oxygen-rich air, many things grew to giant proportions.  Dragonflies had wingspans of 29 inches (75 cm), and millipede-like bugs grew up to 9 feet long (2.7 m).  Some amphibians were almost 20 feet long (6 m). 

 Finally, the Carboniferous Period was brought to an end by climate change.  Wet and warm became cool and dry.  Glaciers grew, sea levels dropped, and many rainforest species went extinct, including most of the forests.  In the new climate, many reptiles adapted well, because the eggs they laid on land had shells that prevented the embryo from drying out.  Eventually, this enabled the emergence of the dinosaur era, which included the ancestors of modern birds.

It took many millions of years to transform the woody biomass into coal.  Over the passage of time, Big Mama Nature buried most of the sequestered carbon.  The family of life had no need for it.  So, the fossil sunshine took a long and pleasant nap.  Much later, when human miners rudely began drilling and blasting, the coal spirits were totally infuriated.  They cast malevolent spells against the screw-brained primates.  Their curses loaded the atmosphere with carbon, jerked the rug out from under a stable climate, and blindsided ecosystems everywhere.  Leave the coal where it is!

Jurassic Period

Petroleum and natural gas are buried sunshine that began in bodies of water during the Jurassic Period, the age of dinosaurs.  In those days, the climate was very warm, creating perfect conditions for teeny-tiny plants called phytoplankton that float around in oceans, seas, and lakes.  They absorbed Jurassic sunshine, and used it to create carbohydrates (their food), via photosynthesis. 

Today, phytoplankton are the most numerous organisms in oceans.  It is estimated that they comprise one percent of global biomass, yet most of them are too small to see with the naked eye.  They are the foundation of the oceanic food chain, and all sea life depends on them for survival.  Of all the photosynthesis performed on Earth, they do half of it.  They produce half of the oxygen in the atmosphere, the stuff you’re breathing now.  They asked me to tell you that they are really pissed off about the climate crisis and ocean acidification.  Leave the oil and gas where it is!

During the Jurassic, countless gazillions of these floating organisms lived happily.  When they died, they sank to the bottom.  In some locations, large deposits accumulated faster than the material could decompose.  These deposits formed between 260 and 10 million years ago.  Once they were buried under layers of sediment, heat and pressure stimulated chemical reactions.  Oil and gas were created when the deposits were cooked for millions of years at temperatures ranging from 180° to 280°F (82° to 137°C).  In many locations, large concentrations of these hydrocarbons (oil and gas) have survived to modern times.  (So, oil is not dinosaur juice, it is phytoplankton stew.)

It took 250 million years for the biomass to accumulate at the bottom of the sea, and additional millions to finish pressure cooking it into oil and gas.  During this extremely slow process, 90 tons of ancient biomass was transformed into oil from which one U.S. gallon of gasoline (3.8 l) could be refined.  Over the passage of time, Big Mama Nature deeply buried most of the sequestered carbon, because the family of life had no need for it.  The world continued to live happily, and the air remained fresh and clean.

Vicious Circle

Our hominin ancestors appeared maybe four million years ago.  Like all other animals, they needed food, air, and water to survive.  Plants made their own food via photosynthesis, so they needed sunbeams, air, and water. 

As mentioned earlier, the invention of the fire drill, and the domestication of fire was a major turning point in the human saga.  Our early hominin ancestors may have lived for a million years or more prior to fire making.  It wasn’t necessary for biological survival, but it eventually enabled civilizations to develop the deadly technology needed to destroy entire ecosystems, and destabilize the climate.  We do know that, sooner or later, our ancestors became seriously addicted to using fire.  At that point, they developed a never-ending interest in fuel — dried organic matter like grass, leaves, dung, peat, and wood. 

Fire enabled them to better defend themselves against man-eating carnivores, so fewer brothers and sisters became cat food.  It also enabled cooking, which sharply increased the number of potential food resources from which they could extract solar energy.  So their addiction to sunbeam energy now expanded beyond the food they ate, to the solar power stored in the fuels they burned.

Humans are walking sunbeams.  We absorb sunbeam energy when we eat nuts, berries, fruit, tubers, and other digestible plant substances.  We can’t acquire it by eating grass, but we can absorb it when we eat grass-loving herbivores.  We can encourage the expansion of their herds, and increase our food resources, by deliberately expanding herbivore habitat — grasslands.  This can be done via firestick farming or deforestation.  For humans, grasslands provide more food than deserts, wetlands, forests, or brushy scrub. 

Wild herbivores are far less likely to overgraze than are herds of domesticated livestock, because a herder’s wealth and status is based on the number of critters he owns, not the condition of the grassland.  More is better.  For this reason, herders also have a long history of aggressively exterminating the wild carnivores that also cherish their herds.  As mentioned earlier, some ecosystems have been reduced to wastelands when overgrazing leads to catastrophic erosion over time.

Cropland can produce far more food per unit of land than grazing land, so it was often expanded in regions that were suitable for agriculture.  The healthy community of wild vegetation was ripped off the face of the land, the soil was tilled, seeds were planted, and sunbeams nurtured a generous banquet of nutrients we could digest.

Like herding, agriculture also has a long history of degrading ecosystems over time, in a number of ways.  Each crop removes nutrients from the soil that are often not returned — nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and other stuff.  When sunbeams heat up exposed soil, they stimulate microbial life that degrades the humus, causing precious carbon in the soil to float away as carbon dioxide.  This long term carbon loss is even greater when cropland was originally created via deforestation.  Wild forests and unmolested topsoil are two huge treasure chests of precious carbon.  In a later chapter, we’ll take a closer look at the serious harms and challenges related to agriculture today.

Once again, attentive readers will see that the hunter-gatherer way of life had far less impact on ecosystems.  It wasn’t consistently harmless, but it kept humans alive for 300,000 years, and our hominin ancestors for several million years.  In comparison, the lifespan of civilization will be more like a quick flash in the pan, a train wreck.  Prior to the dawn of herding and farming, the planet remained in far better condition than it is today. 

Human cleverness, motivated by good intentions, and handicapped by ecological ignorance, has spectacularly backfired — and this failure is not understood by billions of folks who know little or nothing about environmental history.  Catastrophe is invisible to them.  Their virtual reality headsets stream images of a high standard of living, wondrous prosperity, amazing genius.  Let’s go shopping!

Craig Dilworth described the ongoing rise and fall of civilizations as a vicious circle.  Clever innovation enabled folks to control and exploit more sunbeam energy, and this enabled population growth.  More mouths needed access to more sunbeams, which required more cleverness, and on and on.  It was a merry-go-round that kept spinning faster and faster, until it ran into solid limits to growth that cleverness could not sweep aside.  Then, the merry-go-round shifted into reverse, and the game got slower, simpler, and quieter.  Societies strangled by scarcity, or bulldozed by stronger outsiders, tumbled into the tar pits of oblivion, while new merry-go-rounds began spinning elsewhere.  What goes up must come down.

Albert Bartlett tirelessly preached that growth in population and resource consumption is undesirable, unwise, and unsustainable.  Therefore, the super-trendy buzzword “sustainable growth” is an oxymoron.  Unfortunately, it seems that the majority of educated people in the world are radicalized believers in an absurd oxymoron.  It’s like the neon sign in the tavern window, “Free Beer Tomorrow.”  Our obsession with perpetual growth is batshit crazy.  Luckily, ignorance is curable, in theory.

By removing the forests, and growing crops, orchards, and livestock, the incoming solar energy could generate far more digestible nutrients.  More nutrients enabled the survival of more primates, so more forests were converted into manmade nutrient factories, and the primate mob grew even more.  The trees cleared could be processed into many useful products.  The charcoal could be used to smelt ores, and produce metal tools.  Metal tools made it much easier to remove forests, build things, plow cropland, and kill enemies and other animals.  This merry-go-round of cleverness has never spun faster, with greater fury — a vicious circle indeed.

Muscle Power

Throughout the four million year era of hominins, muscle power has been a primary source of energy for doing stuff.  Muscle power is highly versatile, able to run on a variety of edible fuels — grains, beans, meat, eggs, fruit, nuts, roots, insects, and so on.  Clive Ponting noted that until 1800, about 75 percent of the mechanical energy needed to run civilization came from human muscles, and most of the rest was from animals (wind and water were minor sources). 

Prior to 1492, the indigenous Americans had enslaved zero extra-large beasts of burden (beside humans).  The grand cities of the Incas, Mayans, and Aztecs were built entirely with human labor.  Much human energy was used to create Egypt’s pyramids.  The Great Wall of China was constructed by one million workers, half of whom died in the process.  The Greek and Roman city states held large populations of slaves.  Slavery was common from the dawn of civilization until the nineteenth century, and so was forced labor for “free” peasants.

Pita Kelekna wrote that horses were wild and free until maybe 4000 B.C., when humans began enslaving them.  Wild horses had been popular large game for many thousands of years.  Several scholars have speculated that domestication probably saved horses from extinction.  You can only eat a horse once, but you can force it to perform heavy work month after month, year after year.  They could be used to pull stuff, haul loads, and carry riders.  Four legged slaves enabled a tremendous expansion of soil mining, forest mining, mineral mining, bloody empire building, and economic growth.  They helped unlock the gateway to industrial civilization.

Humans produce less muscle power than horses, but we need less feed, and can digest far more types of foods.  We have bodies and brains that allow us to perform a much wider variety of physical tasks.  People can travel across deserts, up rugged mountains, and through dense rainforests.  Horses are less adaptable to hot climates and arctic regions.  Each one requires five acres (2 ha) of good grassland, and the supply of good grassland is not infinite.

By 1900, the global population of humans had soared to about 1.5 billion, and the era of horse power was wearing out its welcome.  Eric Morris wrote a fascinating essay to help us remember life in the Peak Horse era.  The streets of big cities were jammed with horses, carriages, and wagons, squishing through a deep layer of manure and urine, past rotting horse carcasses, amidst dense clouds of flies and overpowering stench.  Cities were rapidly growing, as hordes immigrants moved in to enjoy miserable industrial jobs, while living in crowded, filthy, disease ridden slums.  Each horse emitted 15 to 30 pounds (7 to 14 kg) of manure daily — 3 to 4 million pounds (1.3 to 1.8 million kg) in New York City each day.

(To be continued…)

Monday, June 15, 2015

The End of Plenty


Nothing is more precious than balance, stability, and sustainability.  Today, we’re hanging by our fingernails to a skyrocket of intense insane change, and it’s the only way of life we’ve ever known.  Joel Bourne has spent his life riding the rocket.  He grew up on a farm, and studied agronomy at college, but sharp changes were causing many farmers to go bankrupt.  Taking over the family farm would have been extremely risky, so he became a writer for farm magazines.  Later, he was hired by National Geographic, where he has spent most of his career.

In 2008, he was assigned to cover the global food crisis, and this project hurled him into full awareness of the big picture.  The Green Revolution caused food production to skyrocket, and world population doubled in just 40 years.  Then, the revolution fizzled out, whilst population continued to soar.  Demographers have told us to expect another two or three billion for dinner in 2050.  Obviously, this had the makings of an excellent book, so Bourne sat down and wrote The End of Plenty.

The subtitle of his book is “The Race to Feed a Crowded World,” not “The Race to Tackle Overpopulation.”  A growing population thrills the greed community, and a diminishing herd does not.  Overpopulation is a problem that can be solved, and will be, either by enlightened self-restraint, by compulsory restraint, or, most likely, by the vigorous housekeeping of Big Mama Nature.  Feeding the current population is thrashing the planet, and feeding even more will worsen everything, but this is our primary objective.  We are, after all, civilized people, and enlightened self-restraint is for primitive savages who live sustainably in roadless paradises.

As incomes rise, the newly affluent are enjoying a more luxurious diet.  To satisfy this growing demand, food production must double by 2050.  “We’ll have to learn to produce as much food in the next four decades as we have since the beginning of civilization.”  Meanwhile, agriculture experts are not bursting with brilliant ideas.  “Producing food for more than 9 billion people without destroying the soil, water, oceans, and climate will be by far the greatest challenge humanity has ever faced.”  Bourne’s book describes a number of gigantic obstacles to doubling food production — or even maintaining current production.

Automobiles are more addictive than crystal meth.  Europeans guzzle biodiesel made from palm oil.  Americans are binging on corn ethanol.  The 2005 Energy Tax Act mandated the addition of biofuels to gasoline.  From 2001 to 2012, the ethanol gold rush drove corn prices from $1.60 to $8.28.  Not coincidentally, in 2008 food riots erupted in twenty countries.  The Arab Spring revolts began in 2011, a year of record harvests and record prices.  Today, almost 40 percent of the U.S. corn crop is being fed to motor vehicles — enough corn to feed everyone in Africa.  Experts predict that we’ll need four times more land for biofuels by 2030.

Crops require cropland, and almost all places ideal for farming are already in use, buried under roads and cities, or have been reduced to wasteland.  Every year, a million hectares (2.4 million acres) of cropland are taken out of production because of erosion, desertification, or development.  So, 90 percent of the desired doubling in food production will have to come from current cropland.  At the same time, the farm soils still in production have all seen better days.  Agriculture is an unsustainable activity that normally depletes soil quality over time.

Another obstacle is yield, the amount of food that can be produced on a hectare of land.  Between 1961 and 1986, cereal yields rose 89 percent, due to the Green Revolution.  But per capita grain production peaked in 1986.  Since then, population has been growing faster than yields.  Crop breeding experts are wringing their hands.  A number of indicators suggest that we are heading for “agricultural Armageddon,” but the experts remain silent, praying for miracles.  The biotech industry is focused on making huge profits selling seeds and poisons, not boosting yields.

Agriculture guzzles 70 percent of the water used by humans.  Irrigated fields have yields that are two to three times higher than rain fed fields.  Demand for water is projected to increase 70 to 90 percent by 2050, but water consumption today is already unsustainable.  “Over the next few decades, groundwater depletion could cripple agriculture around the world.”

Crop production is already being affected by climate change.  Research indicates that further warming will take a substantial toll on crop yields.  If temperatures rise 4°C, maybe half the world’s cropland will become unsuitable for agriculture.  Rising sea levels will submerge large regions currently used for rice production.

Meanwhile, population continues to grow, and some hallucinate it will grow until 2100.  In a nutshell, our challenge is “to double grain, meat, and biofuel production on fewer acres with fewer farmers, less water, higher temperatures, and more frequent droughts, floods, and heat waves.”  This must be done “without destroying the forests, oceans, soils, pollinators, or climate on which all life depends.”

Ladies and gentlemen, this is an outstanding book, and easy to read.  Most people have blind faith that innovation will keep the supermarkets filled forever.  Those who actually think a bit are focusing on stuff like solar panels, wind turbines, and electric cars.  Food is something we actually need, and it gets far less attention than it deserves.  By the end of the book, it’s impossible to conclude that everything is under control, and that our wise leaders will safely guide us through the storm.  Surprisingly, a few additional super-threats were not discussed in the book.

Bourne mentions that insects and weeds are developing resistance to expensive GMO wonder products, but stops there.  Big Mama Nature is the mother of resistance.  She never tires of producing new forms of life that are resistant to every toxin produced by science: insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, rodenticides, antibiotics.  Every brilliant weapon we invent will only work temporarily.  In terms of breeding new varieties of plants that are resistant to the latest biological threat, there are only so many tricks available.  The low-hanging fruit has already been used.  Just three plants enable the production of 80 to 90 percent of the calories we consume: corn, rice, and wheat. 

The global food system is heavily dependent on petroleum fuels, which are finite and nonrenewable.  There is no combination of biofuels or alternative energy that will come anywhere close to replacing oil.  In the coming decades, we will be forced to return to a muscle-powered food system.  We are entirely unprepared for this, and the consequences will be very exciting for people who eat food.

There is a similar issue with fertilizer.  Of the three primary plant nutrients, reserves of mineral phosphorus will be depleted first, and this will blindside conventional agriculture — no phosphorus, no life.  A hundred years ago, Chinese farmers used zero commercial fertilizer.  Every morning, long caravans of handcarts hauled large jugs of sewage from the cities to the fields.

In the end, readers are presented with two paths to the future.  One path looks like a whirlwind of big trouble, and this is not just a comic book doomer fantasy — it’s already blowing and rumbling.  The other path is happy and wonderful.  Humans will discover their legendary big brains, turn them on, shift industrial civilization into reverse, speed down the fast lane to genuine sustainability, and live happily ever after.  Place your bets. 

Bourne, Joel K., The End of Plenty: The Race to Feed A Crowded World, W. W. Norton & Company, New York, 2015.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Who Will Feed China?


Lester Brown is an environmental analyst, and founder of the Worldwatch Institute, and the Earth Policy Institute.  His grand plan was to observe global trends, and produce objective information.  Brown’s many books and reports have provided rational advice for the world’s irrational policymakers.  He has not sold his soul to corporate interests.

In 1994, Brown wrote an essay, Who Will Feed China?  It triggered an explosive response.  Chinese leaders angrily denounced him.  But behind the scenes, they realized that their nation was vulnerable, because they had not perceived the big picture clearly.  Brown expanded his essay into a book with the same title, published in 1995.  It became a classic.  Reading it 20 years later is eerie, because many of his warnings now sound like the daily news.

Before they industrialized, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan were already densely populated.  Then, the growth of industry gobbled up a lot of cropland, which reduced food production, and forced all three to become dependent on imported grain.  In 1994, Japan imported 72 percent of its grain, South Korea 66 percent, and Taiwan 76 percent.

Brown saw that China was on a similar trajectory.  Cropland was limited, and it was rapidly being lost to sprawl, industry, and highways.  They were likely to lose half of their cropland by 2030.  They were also likely to add another 500 million people by 2030.  As incomes rose, people were eager to enjoy a richer diet, including more meat and beer.  This required even more cropland per person.

Freshwater for agriculture was also limited, and much of it was being diverted to growing cities and factories.  About 300 cities were already short of water.  China’s capitol, Beijing, was among 100 cities with severe water shortages.  Demand for water was sure to rise.  Only a few Chinese had indoor plumbing, and everyone wanted it.

Many farmers were forced to drill wells and pump irrigation water from aquifers, often at rates in excess of natural recharge — water mining.  As enormous amounts of water were removed underground, subsidence occurs.  The ground surface sinks, filling the void below, making it impossible for the aquifer to recharge in the future.  In northern China, subsidence affects a region the size of Hungary.  Irrigated fields produce the most food, but water mining will eventually force a reduction in irrigation.  Some regions may be forced to stop growing rice, a water-guzzling crop, and replace it with less productive millet or sorghum.

Grain productivity (yield per hectare) annually grew an average of 7.1 percent between 1977 and 1984.  The annual increase was less than 2 percent between 1984 and 1990, and just 0.7 percent between 1990 and 1994.  There were great hopes for biotechnology, but 20 years of efforts led to no significant increase in grain yields.  Meanwhile, the Yellow River moved 1.6 billion tons of topsoil to the ocean every year.

Now, assemble the pieces.  Population was likely to grow from 1.2 billion in 1995 to 1.66 billion in 2045.  Per capita grain consumption was growing, likely to increase 33 percent by 2030.  Cropland area was likely to decrease 50 percent by 2030.  Water for irrigation was limited, and certain to diminish.  Annual grain harvests may have been close to, or beyond, their historic peak.  The effects of climate change cannot be predicted, but might be severe.  In 1995, the notion of Peak Oil had not yet spread beyond the lunatic fringe, and Brown didn’t mention it, but at some point, it will make modern agriculture impossible.

Demand for grain was rising at a rate that would sharply exceed China’s harvests.  If their economy remained strong, they would have the money to import food.  But, would the food they need be available on the world market?  Following a century of catastrophic population growth, many nations were dependent on imported food.

As world population continued to grow, the ability to further increase food production was wheezing.  World grain stocks fell from 465 million tons in 1987, to 298 million tons in 1994.  At some point, surging demand for grain would exceed the surpluses of the exporters.  This would drive up the price of food.

Brown selected ten large developing nations where population growth remained extreme, and projected how much food they would need to import by 2030.  “By 2030, these countries — assuming no improvement in diet — will need to import 190 million tons of grain.  This is six times the amount they import today and nearly equal to total world grain exports in 1994.”

We were moving into an era of food instability.  “For the first time, an environmental event — the collision of expanding human demand with some of the earth’s natural limits — will have an economic impact that affects the entire world.”  Annual economic growth for the world was falling.  The global economy grew 5.2 percent in the ’60s, 3.4 percent in the ’70s, 2.9 percent in the ’80s, and 1.4 percent in 1990-94.  Slower growth, plus rising food prices, plus falling incomes, sets the stage for trouble.  “It could lead to political unrest and a swelling flow of hungry migrants across national borders.”

Agriculture was running out of steam.  The wizards of industrial civilization insisted that perpetual growth was possible, because our miraculous technology could overcome all challenges.  They were wrong.  Brown concludes, “The bottom line is that achieving a humane balance between food and people is now more in the hands of family planners than farmers.”  When Brown wrote, there were 5.6 billion of us.  Irrational policymakers disregarded the urgent need for family planning.  And so, today, at 7.2 billion, the world is a far more unstable place, with no light at the end of the tunnel.

Twenty years before Brown’s book, China realized that population growth was a problem.  They were adding 13 million every year, and emigration was not a real option.  Their one-child policy was launched in 1979, and the transition was bumpy.  The birthrate fell from 2.7 percent in 1970 to 1.1 percent in 1994.  It succeeded in preventing much misery, but it didn’t stop growth.  Brown praised them for actually taking action, forcing the present generation to sacrifice for the benefit of future generations — a concept unimaginable to Americans.

Brown, Lester R., Who Will Feed China?, W. W. Norton & Company, New York, 1995.

Here are recent follow-up reports from the Earth Policy Institute:

Can the World Feed China?  Lester R. Brown, February 25, 2014

Peak Water: What Happens When the Wells Go Dry?  Lester R. Brown, July 09, 2013